Stock market rally to promote the mystery of this round of funds?
Mm stock market rally could signal an economic recovery, when the ice
According to media reports, February 13, renowned economist Wu Jinglian interview in Suzhou said that the recent stock market improves, the economy may recover the signal. Mr Wu has been called joy to the Chinese stock market can be improved as a signal of the logic of economic recovery, in the end is how derived, and sincerely listen to old timers bend over to help. (with captions: February 14 in the media reporting and writing this article on February 15 The article hit the papers, 16 February, Mr Wu made a statement to clarify that the recovery of the Department of media reports of errors, he did not say that the economic recovery, it is noted, please read note.)
economic recovery is everyone are looking forward to the results of the civilian population from the decision-making, all hope of the earliest to recover from the economic crisis. However, there are always between reality and expectation gap, sometimes a very large gap.
China's stock market and real economy often deviated from the trend, though, with the rank order of the various industry leaders listed on the stock market and real economy has a greater tendency to run with the sexual, but not enough to determine the stock market as the economy recovers or not basis. we all know, Chinese stock market is a policy of the city, the policy level, the trend of the stock market has the most direct impact is often immediate. The real economy is a huge system, even if the relevant policy is entirely the right remedy, also takes a long time to truly apparent, as with the actual situation is even more drastically different policy initiatives, not to mention. Thus, the domestic, the stock market rally and economic recovery, and no necessary link between, will rebound in the stock market as a signal of economic recovery is at least strict. otherwise, the government first lift the stock market can promote the real economy better. If so, save the economy fell very simple.
recent days, I have had exchanges with a number of entrepreneurs, access to information tells us: this wave of stock market rally is not only not be used as a signal of economic recovery, and even, there are many potential worries. The most important question is: to promote this wave of rising stock markets where the funds come from?
for ease of understanding , China's money supply simply make the following explanation: money supply, China will be divided into three levels: first, cash in circulation M0, ie cash in circulation outside the banking system; Second, the narrow money supply M1, M0 plus the enterprises demand deposits; third broad money supply M2, the M1 plus time deposits enterprises, household savings deposits and other deposits.
2009 年 2 月 12 Bank of Japan released data show that the end of 2009, 1, M2 broad money supply amounted to 49.61 trillion yuan, an increase of 18.79%, higher than the previous year an increase of 0.97 percentage points, a record in December 2003 to a new high. narrow money supply M1 amounted to 16.52 trillion yuan, an increase of 6.68%, lower than the previous year an increase of 2.38 percentage points; market currency in circulation M0 balance of 4.11 trillion yuan, an increase of 12.02%. RMB loans of 31.99 trillion yuan, an increase of 21.33%, an increase over the previous year high of 2.6 percentage points.
worth mentioning is that China in January of the new loans reached a staggering 1.6 trillion, an increase of 814.1 billion yuan, a record number of new loans is expected to close this year 5.4 trillion of 30%.
why, in January of RMB loans increased 1.62 trillion yuan, up 18.79% of the cases, the narrow money supply (M1) balance increased by only 6.68%, an increase over the previous year also low 2.38 percent, becoming the lowest increase in M1 data?
general, M1 growth rate decline was due to significantly lower corporate demand deposits. the one hand, may be due to raw materials paid by enterprises, such as increase in salary payments, lead to reduced demand deposits. On the other hand, may be due to the pessimistic economic outlook, part of the long-term deposits into demand deposits.
If you look at the customs control of imports decreased release of data will find, in fact, the purchase price of raw materials paid by enterprises is reduced during this period, wages have not increased accordingly (in fact, some enterprises in the layoffs, the introduction of measures that lead to the departments concerned to limit this). According to customs statistics, China's exports to 904.5 in January billion, down 17.5% year on year, imports amounted to 51.34 billion U.S. dollars, up 43.1% dropped significantly.'s top three trade partners of China, Central Europe, Central America,UGG boots clearance, bilateral trade volume between China and Japan were 279.3,222.5 and 145 billion U.S. dollars, down 18.7% year on year, 15.2% and 28%. And, in January, PPI fell 3.3%, a record low of 82 months.
Obviously, enterprises for business development, capital investment is in fact reduced, then this part of the funds flow to where? control volume over the same period the stock market surge, the biggest is probably the stock market.
1 month, an increase of RMB loans of financial institutions to 1.62 trillion yuan, hit a single month history of the size of new loans records. If you look closely, increased 1.62 trillion yuan in loans, on short-term loans and bill financing increased by nearly 1 trillion yuan. This shows that a considerable portion of the loan funds to increase flow to the real economy did not go into effective investment demand driving the flow of funds, but the flow to the stock market to obtain short-term gains.
Clearly, the stock market rebound, not only can not serve as a signal of economic recovery, and even, but also because companies driven by speculation, so much the difficulty of economic recovery increase. The reason is simple, a lot of money into the stock market business, will certainly constitute a much-needed funds for blood effect the real economy in the long run,bailey UGG boots, is damaging the development of the real economy.
main purpose of relaxation of credit is In order to stimulate the development of the real economy, in the case of the real economy begins to recover, as the real economy mirror the stock market bull market can really get out. Only based on the real economy or the stock market based, sustainable development is to the health of the stock market. On the contrary, a lot of money into the stock market from the real economy, although it may create a stock market boom, but can not complement each other and the real economy, so it is difficult to really keep the prosperity going.
Therefore, the stock market rally can not serve as a signal of economic recovery. economy to recover, must establish a fair and equitable market environment and increase the efficiency of enterprises, especially private enterprises more attractive, so that good business can stand out. If you can not train fully within such a competitive market environment, the economy the pace of recovery than we thought it would be much more difficult. And now, a significant policy resources to focus on state-owned enterprises, this part of the resources or even a surplus, while private enterprises are the least available resources, is seriously lacking, they are bad the competitive environment or linger, or to accept the reality of death.
root causes, our country's economic crisis did not originate sub-prime crisis, domestic demand from China led to a serious shortage of the poor. I subprime mortgage crisis to change the world, to the enterprise level, it should be a large-scale tax cuts, creating an atmosphere of fair competition among enterprises, active competition, the author Xueshiqianbao,UGG boots cheap, still could not find a more effective response than this economic crisis. (written in February 15, 2009 ,Discount UGG boots, published in the paper on February 16)
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